Gtres
Gtres

There are just over two weeks left before Brexit is supposed to happen and it’s still not yet clear exactly how. The process is completely in the air with Theresa May’s defeat in the Commons of her latest push for a deal with the EU. What happens next with the Brexit situation and how does this affect expats and people going to Spain?

Although earlier in the week London and Brussels announced loudly that they had reached a last-minute agreement to add an annex to the text they agreed in November to try to get Parliament's definitive backing, Westminster has once again shot down the PM’s plans. This is the second time that the 'no' vote has been imposed in just two months, and it won the vote by an overwhelming margin.

In January, the agreement between the British government and the European Commission suffered a historic defeat at the hands of the House of Commons, although at that time there were more options left on the table: May had weeks to renegotiate and pull new concessions from Europe. And that's what, in principle, seemed to have been achieved on Monday: the new agreement with Brussels included five new pages in the original text to ensure that there would be an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, should no trade agreement be reached in the transitional period.

However, the outcome of the most recent Brexit consultation was clear: a total of 391 British MPs rejected the new agreement, against 242 who supported it. It was the fourth worst result ever recorded by a British Prime Minister.

But what is certain is that the parliamentary refusal was discounted hours before, when the British Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, opposed the latest amendments agreed by the Prime Minister and the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker. Cox considers that the annex did not put an end to the legal risk involved in the initial agreement and that more guarantees are needed to ensure that the UK will not remain tied indefinitely to the customs union after it leaves the EU, which would oblige it to comply with European regulations.

In addition, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn had already publicly rejected the 'in extremis' agreement. “The Prime Minister's negotiations have failed. Last night's agreement with the European Commission does not contain anything approaching the changes Theresa May promised parliament. That's why lawmakers must reject this deal today,” the opposition leader explained yesterday morning.

What now for Brits in Spain?

There is still a dark cloud hanging over British citizens living abroad in the EU, with uncertainty about the future lingering on. The Spanish Tax Agency, the Hacienda, has already sent out informative letters to business owners and export companies in Spain on what to do in the case of a no-deal Brexit, including details of the increased VAT on imports from Britain and more stringent customs controls at borders, meaning longer waiting times and more difficulties for companies that do business between Spain and the UK after Brexit..

This may mean that the imported gravy and teabags expats in Spain buy will be more expensive, but there are other more serious consequences. For people living in British-owned Gibraltar who commute to the Spanish mainland for work every day, the cross-border travel could become more troublesome, although the Spanish government is determined to thrash out a deal to protect the rights of Gibraltarians.

While there have been promises from the UK government that Britons’ access to healthcare in Europe, their residency status and their ability to stay in EU countries without a visa will all be protected, the prospect of no-deal means there are no guarantees for the time being that any of this will be possible for expats living in Europe. Until we know the results of the next vote on the Brexit agreement to take place in Westminster, there will be no binding assurances about what the future holds for expats living in Spain.

What now? More votes and new proposals

For the time being, a new vote is scheduled for Wednesday 13th March to decide whether Parliament prefers a no-deal Brexit without any sort of agreement with the EU, known in the market as hard Brexit, for which a sufficient majority is ruled out.

If a new 'no' comes out, another consultation will take place on Thursday 14th March to decide on a three-month extension of Brexit's planned date (the initial launch date for Brexit was 29th March 2019, when the 20-month transitional period was due to begin). The option of postponing Brexit past the end of this month, while it is looking more and more likely, is one that Theresa May has always avoided.

Brussels, for its part, must approve this extension if Westminster gives the green light (as stipulated in the famous Article 50 of the European Treaty), although it has already made it clear that it will not make further changes to the initial text.

Many experts wonder whether a three-month extension of the Brexit deadline, making the new Brexit date 29th June 2019, could be enough to remedy the situation, while several former British Prime Ministers including Gordon Brown and John Major believe that an extension of one year would be necessary for the break from Europe to happen in an orderly manner.

Other proposals are coming from London. According to the Spanish daily newspaper El Economista, Scottish nationalists are planning to present the option of a second referendum, while the Labour leader has assured that he is going to present an alternative version of Brexit in the Norwegian style. And what does this system consist of? Norway does not belong to the economic union, but it does belong to the European political union. But this route would also have complications: among other things, Norway must comply with much of the EU legislation, including the free movement of people, which seems difficult to achieve with a country like Britain.

Nor is it ruled out that there will be early general elections in the UK or that Theresa May will knock on the European door again to try to obtain the guarantees demanded by Westminster. The backdrop to all this is the European elections which are due to be held in May, for which there will be no British representatives. Their seats have already been distributed among the other 27 EU members, and Spain will go from 54 to 59 MEPs in the European Parliament.

Remember that Brexit was victorious in the referendum held in the United Kingdom at the end of June 2016. The result of the vote caused a shock in world markets and the Ibex 35, the Spanish stock market, closed the worst day in its entire history. Since then, the negotiations between Brussels and London have been complex, although they have agreed on a transitional period that (for the time being) will last until the end of January 2021.