An international scientific study has identified one stretch of Spain’s southern coastline as the most exposed area in Spain to tsunami energy in modelling scenarios linked to the Averroes fault.
Researchers modelled a magnitude 7.0 earthquake capable of displacing the sea floor and triggering a regional tsunami. The results indicate that the impact along Spain’s coast would not be evenly distributed.
Spain’s most exposed location to a tsunami
According to El Diario Almería, the study published in Pure and Applied Geophysics identifies Balerma, in El Ejido, as the Spanish location where tsunami energy would be most concentrated. Western Almería appears in the simulations as the main focus of energy along the Spanish coast, with Balerma used as the principal reference point.
Two different modelling approaches provide slightly different maximum wave figures:
- One regional simulation indicates maximum wave heights of up to 2.9 metres in Spanish waters.
- A separate Mw 7.0 scenario based on a 5.4-metre vertical offset at the north-western tip of the fault models wave heights of up to six metres at Balerma.
By comparison, other coastal locations show longer estimated arrival times:
- Málaga: around 21 minutes in one scenario, and up to 35 minutes in studies published in Nature.
- Melilla: up to 27 minutes.
Likely impact along the most exposed stretch of coast
According to the simulations, potential effects along this stretch of coast include:
- Flooding of first-line coastal areas.
- Damage to paseos marítimos (seafront promenades), harbours and beach facilities.
- Sudden inflow of water into low-lying zones.
- Powerful and hazardous currents.
The Averroes fault in the Alboran Sea
The Averroes fault lies beneath the Alboran Sea, between southern Spain and North Africa. It moves northward at around four millimetres per year, according to the ICM. Research in a 2021 study published in Nature estimates a recurrence period for major events of roughly 31,000 years.
It is described as both seismogenic and tsunamigenic, meaning it is capable of generating earthquakes and tsunamis. While such large events are considered rare, modelling shows they could generate a regional tsunami.
Historical tsunamis in Almería
This is not purely theoretical. Historical records show that Almería experienced tsunamis in 1522 and 1887. Both events were documented in local historical records, although limited surviving data makes it difficult to reconstruct their exact reach and impact today.
How Spain would alert coastal communities
In the event of a major incident linked to the Averroes fault, Spanish authorities would activate the National Tsunami Warning System immediately after detecting a major earthquake.
The process would involve:
- Risk assessment within minutes by the Instituto Geográfico Nacional.
- Alerts sent to civil protection teams.
- ES-Alert cell broadcast messages sent to mobile phones in coastal areas, instructing people to move inland and uphill.
Residents near the shore are advised to move to higher ground on foot immediately after feeling strong shaking, even before official alerts are received.
A rare but modelled risk
The estimated recurrence period of around 31,000 years places a major event in the category of rare natural hazards.
For anyone living on Spain’s southern coast, especially in low-lying seafront areas, the key takeaway from the research is not alarm but awareness: in this specific scenario, geography and proximity make one small stretch of coastline stand out clearly in the data.
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