The price of new-build housing in Valencia has soared and could continue rising in the coming months, potentially exceeding €5,000/m². This is the warning contained in the latest report published by the Housing Observatory Chair at the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV), which highlights the concerning combination of rapidly rising prices and an increasingly limited housing supply.
According to the study, the average price of newly built flats reached €4,575/m² in the third quarter of the year, up 23.5% year-on-year (from €3,705/m² in summer 2025). Compared with the end of 2019, the average price has more than doubled (€1,915/m²).
The chair's director, Fernando Cos-Gayón, attributes this trend primarily to the shortage of available housing. "Prices are not rising because of excessive demand, but because there is a lack of supply," he notes. He warns that unless there is a significant increase in construction activity and affordable housing in the short term, prices could exceed €5,000/m² by summer 2027.
The decline in supply is one of the key factors driving pressure in Valencia's property market. According to the Observatory, the city currently has just 189 new-build homes available for sale, compared with 784 at the end of 2019. This represents a 76% drop, while the number of active developments has fallen from 110 to 50 over the same period.
The increase is not limited to the city itself but is also spreading across the metropolitan area. New-build housing prices currently stand at €3,579/m² in l'Horta Nord, €3,359/m² in l'Horta Oest and €3,210/m² in l'Horta Sud.
Rents are rising as supply declines
The report also highlights that the rental market is failing to provide an affordable alternative for a growing share of the population. The average monthly rent in Valencia has reached €1,776, which is 8.7% higher than a year ago and almost double the €938 recorded at the end of 2019. Rental prices have risen in 18 of the city's 19 districts.
This increase comes alongside a decline in available rental properties. Supply fell from 1,909 homes to 1,572 in just one quarter, a decrease of 17.7%. Current availability is also 14% lower than a year ago.
According to Cos-Gayón, a household would need a net monthly income of more than €5,300 to spend only a third of its earnings on the average rent. In his view, this leaves a significant proportion of young people with virtually no realistic prospect of either buying or renting a home.
Social housing, an alternative to curb prices
The report also offers a more positive assessment of subsidised housing, identifying a change in trend and expressing confidence that its recovery could help moderate market price increases.
Between January 2025 and 2 October 2026, the Valencian regional government granted provisional protected housing status to 3,381 homes across the region, including 1,074 in the city of Valencia. Seven out of every ten of these homes are being developed by private companies.
The first half of 2026 recorded 45% more approvals than the second half of 2025, a development the Observatory considers particularly important for increasing the supply of affordable housing.
"This is the best news in the report and probably the only factor capable of changing the trend," says Cos-Gayón.
Municipal figures also point to growing activity. Applications for protected housing licences in Valencia increased from an annual average of almost 100 homes between 2015 and 2023 to 290 in 2024 and 598 in 2025. So far in 2026, applications have already reached 453, and the Chair forecasts a year-end total of around 680 homes, the highest figure in a decade.
The UPV Housing Observatory links this increase largely to the revised maximum price module for protected housing, updated in December 2024 and again in August 2026, when a further 7% increase was approved, bringing the module to €2,568/m² of usable floor space.
Measures to avoid reaching €5,000/m2
The Housing Observatory at the Polytechnic University of Valencia believes that the protected housing developments scheduled for completion between 2027 and 2029 could provide a more affordable alternative, particularly in outlying neighbourhoods and the first metropolitan ring. However, it warns that their impact on prices will depend on projects being delivered quickly and at sufficient scale.
At present, the period between project approval and key handover is approaching three years. As a result, the Observatory calls for faster licensing and administrative procedures, the continuation of new approvals, regular updates to pricing modules and the mobilisation of public land through mechanisms such as surface rights. It also advocates reducing VAT, promoting industrialised construction and implementing a long-term public housing strategy that is not dependent on political cycles.
According to the study, these measures would help correct the imbalance between supply and demand and prevent prices from reaching €5,000/m². While the recovery of protected housing offers hope for a change in direction, the key challenge will be turning approved projects into completed homes before rising prices further restrict access to housing in Valencia.
