Spain is set to lead economic growth in Europe by 2026, with GDP forecast to rise by 2.1% year on year – 0.9 percentage points above the continental average of 1.2%. This performance will be driven by rising immigration and the strong momentum of the services sector, according to Mastercard Economics’ Economic Outlook 2026 report.
Natalia Lechmanova, Director of Economics at the Mastercard Economics Institute, notes that immigration will support household consumption and help address shortages of skilled labour.
She also highlights the robust performance of the services sector beyond tourism, including high-value-added areas such as professional, financial and technology services.
“The European economy in 2026 will grow steadily thanks to lower inflation, falling interest rates and a resilient labour market, although performance will vary depending on fiscal policy,” Lechmanova added.
Among European countries, Germany is expected to see a marked acceleration driven by fiscal expansion, while growth is likely to be more moderate in countries with tighter policies, such as France, Italy and the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, performance is expected to remain “solid” in Southern Europe and in Central and Eastern Europe.
Turning back to Spain, an analysis of consumer behaviour in Q3 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 reveals a clear shift in spending habits, with consumers increasingly favouring affordable purchases over major expenditures.
In this context, the sharp rise in small purchases (+2.1%) indicates that, despite economic caution, households continue to dedicate part of their budgets to modest luxuries that provide immediate well-being without straining their finances.
At the same time, spending on groceries remains stable, “reflecting careful and consistent management of the essential shopping basket.”
“SMEs are making significant strides in digitalisation, transforming commerce across the region, while the adoption of AI is moving from experimentation to full integration, driving productivity and growth,” Lechmanova highlighted.