If you live in Spain already or you’re planning a longer-term move, the latest Eurostat projections sketch out the sort of country you’ll be growing older in. Europe is set to shrink and age quite dramatically, but Spain’s population stays relatively steady, helped along by decades of immigration and a slower demographic slide than many neighbours.
Europe’s shrinking population and what it means for 2100
Eurostat’s newest long-term projections show a clear trend for the European Union between 2025 and 2100. The EU population is expected to decline by 11.7%, a drop of around 53 million people, by 2100.
This is not an immediate plunge. The population is projected to keep rising for a few years, peaking at around 453.3 million in 2029. After that, it is expected to gradually decline through the rest of the century.
A much older European Union
By 2100, the EU will be notably older, with big shifts in the balance between age groups:
- Children and young people (0–19): share of the total population falls from 20% in 2025 to 17% in 2100
- Working-age people (20–64): share drops from 58% to 50%
- Older people (65+):
- 65–79: inch up from 16% to 17%
- 80+: climb sharply from 6% to 16%
Eurostat’s population pyramid helps visualise this:
- In 2025, the EU looks like a society with plenty of people in their working years, especially those over 50, and relatively small numbers under 20
- By 2100, the pyramid narrows overall and bulges at the top, showing a shrinking population with a much larger share of older age groups and smaller proportions of both young and working-age residents.
Spain vs the rest of the EU: why Spain’s population holds up
Within this wider EU decline, not all countries follow the same path. Some are projected to lose a large share of their residents, while a smaller group is expected to grow.
Out of 30 European countries examined, 18 are projected to have smaller populations in 2100 than in 2025. The steepest falls are forecast in places such as Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Greece, where more than three in ten residents could effectively be “lost” by the end of the century.
Only 12 of the 30 countries in the analysis are expected to grow, with the strongest increases mostly in smaller states like Luxembourg, Iceland and Malta.
Spain and the EU “Big Four”
For foreigners in Spain, the most telling comparison is with the EU’s four biggest economies by size and population: Spain, France, Germany and Italy.
Among these “Big Four”, Spain is the outlier, with a projected population increase of about 1.3% by 2100, while the other three are expected to shrink. In an EU that is overall losing residents, Spain’s population moves up and down, but ends the century slightly larger than it was in 2025.
Spain overtakes Italy in population rankings
Spain is also projected to overtake Italy to become the third most populous country in this group. Between 2025 and 2100, Italy’s population is expected to fall by around 15 million people, while Spain’s is forecast to increase by around half a million.
What drives Spain’s demographic outlook
The experts behind these projections keep circling back to three factors: mortality, fertility and migration. All three matter, but they do not carry the same weight.
- Across the EU, fertility levels are generally too low to maintain current population sizes over the long term, so most countries would see their populations shrink if they relied only on births and deaths.
- In that context, migration becomes the only factor that can realistically secure population growth in Europe under today’s assumptions. Without net migration, many EU countries would face negative natural change, with deaths consistently outnumbering births.
Spain stands out because, over the last three decades, it has experienced a high level of immigration. This steady inflow has kept Spain’s population growing despite very low fertility, unlike in countries where low birth rates are combined with emigration or weak immigration.
For foreigners living in Spain, this means international residents are not a side story. They are a central part of how Spain sustains its population, supports its labour market and holds its place in an increasingly ageing European Union.
Spain’s demographic timeline to 2100
Spain’s population is projected to grow by around 10% by 2055 compared with 2025. After this mid‑century peak, it is expected to decline gradually. By 2100, it is forecast to sit at roughly 1% above the 2025 level.
Living in an older Spain
Spain does not escape the wider ageing process affecting the EU. By the end of the century, nearly one in three Europeans will be over 65, given the combined growth of the 65–79 and 80+ groups.
Spain already has a relatively old population profile compared with some northern countries, so residents can expect:
- a society where older people are increasingly prominent in public life
- growing pressure on health and social care systems
- a smaller relative pool of working‑age residents, with knock‑on effects on taxes, pensions and labour markets
The twist in Spain’s case is that, thanks largely to past and projected immigration, this ageing happens in a country that manages to keep its population size broadly stable rather than seeing it contract sharply. For long‑term foreign residents, that combination of stability and ageing is the demographic backdrop to daily life in Spain over the coming decades.
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