Euroval forecasts that house prices will rise by 2% this year: where will they increase the most?

Prices will continue to suffer from the current economic uncertainty during the second half of the year but will follow a general upward trend

Toledo is home to some of the highest price increases Alexander Awerin on Unsplash

Editorial Team

11 July 2023, 19:35

The housing market is suffering the impact of economic uncertainty and interest rate hikes, although prices seem to be escaping for the time being. While sales and new mortgages have been falling in double digits year-on-year for several months now, residential prices remain stable... and could end the year with rises.

Euroval, a valuer, has forecast that housing prices in Spain will increase by an average of 2% this year. This hike could exceed 4% in provinces such as Guadalajara, Toledo and Huelva.

According to Euroval, "the price of housing in Spain will continue to be affected by the current economic uncertainty during the second half of the year but will still follow a general upward trend". Its forecasts point to a moderation of prices in the second half of the year, "to reach a figure of around 2% per year. The data is in line with the slowdown trend that residential prices have been showing since the last quarter of 2022," adds the valuer, who places the main cause as "a certain reduction in demand due to unresolved international uncertainty and the increased cost of accessing mortgage credit due to the rise in interest rates".

How much the price will rise in each province

The study reveals that 28 provinces would exceed the forecast increase (2.01%) for the national territory as a whole, while another 21 would be below. Only three provinces would show price decreases: Zamora (-0.84%), Palencia (-1.38%) and Soria (-1.40%).

According to Euroval's calculation, Guadalajara province will have the most expensive housing in 2023, at 4.84%, followed by Toledo (4.48%) and Huelva (4.04%). The two main Spanish residential areas, Madrid and Barcelona, will also record increases, albeit more moderate. The national capital would reach 2.17%, while the Catalan capital would be even below the country's average: 1.43%.

Palma and Malaga, two of the provinces where residential prices rose the most last year, will continue their upward trend, although losing steam: the former will go up by 3.24% and the latter by 2.97%. Up to nine provinces would show price stagnation, with increases of less than 1% in all cases: Las Palmas, Salamanca, Badajoz, Jaen, Teruel, Ciudad Real, Cordoba, Caceres and Ourense.