The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its growth forecast for Spain upwards by one-tenth of a percentage point in 2024, which it now estimates at 1.5%, after the 2.5% growth in 2023, while it maintains expectations of a rebound in activity to 2% by 2025.
The OECD's updated forecasts maintain Spain as the best-performing large economy in the eurozone this year and next, and it is the only one to have seen its growth forecast for 2024 revised upwards.
For the eurozone, the think tank for the most developed economies now anticipates growth of 0.6% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025, a deterioration of three and two-tenths of a percentage point, respectively.
The worse outlook for the eurozone reflects the downward revision of the forecast for Germany, to 0.3% this year and 1.1% the following year, when it previously expected an expansion of 0.6% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025.
For its part, France has also seen its growth estimate cut to 0.6% in 2024, two-tenths of a percentage point lower, while the 2025 estimate is maintained at 1.2%. For Italy, the OECD confirmed its forecasts for the two years, at 0.7% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025.
Inflation forecasts
As for inflation, the OECD has lowered by four-tenths the expected price increase in Spain in 2024 to 3.3%, although it has raised to 2.5% from 2.3% the projection for 2025.
Moreover, Spain's core inflation rate should ease in 2024 to 2.7% from 4.1% in 2023, four-tenths of a percentage point lower than previously expected, while in 2025, it would stand at 2.1%, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous projection.
For the eurozone, headline inflation is projected to stand at 2.6% this year, compared with the previously anticipated 2.9%, and to ease to 2.2% in 2025, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than previously forecast.
The underlying rate in the eurozone would fall in 2024 to 2.6%, half a percentage point lower, and in 2025 to 2.2%, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than previously forecast.
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