The European Commission's new growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 place Spain at the head of the recovery in the EU. The EU has raised Spanish GDP forecasts from 5.3% to 5.6% for 2021 and from 4.8% to 5.3% in 2022, although without yet recovering its pre-pandemic gross domestic product. The eurozone average remains stable at 3.8 per cent.
Brussels is showing some optimism after the European economy closed in on a recession following bad data in the last quarter 2020, but it was feared that the downturn would be worse. All signs point to a better recovery in the EU, including Spain, from June 2021 onwards, but with great caution, in the face of a possible new wave of the pandemic that will increase problems for companies, increase long-term unemployment and increase social inequality.
GDP in the 27 EU member states will grow by 3.7% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022 (in the autumn it was 4.1% and 3% respectively), while in the euro area it will grow by 3.8% in both years (in the previous estimate it was 4.2% and 3%), with Spain experiencing the biggest GDP rebound of the entire EU.
"As more and more people get vaccinated in the coming months, the easing of containment measures should allow for a strengthened recovery in the spring and summer," says European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni. "The EU economy should return to pre-pandemic GDP levels by 2022, earlier than expected, although the output lost in 2020 will not recover as quickly or at the same pace across the EU. This forecast is subject to multiple risks, related, for example, to new COVID-19 variants and the global epidemiological situation. On the other hand, the impact of the next EU generation should provide a strong boost to the most affected economies in the coming years, which is not yet integrated in today's projections".
In spite of this optimism, Brussels added that by the end of 2022 Spain still won’t have recovered to its pre-pandemic levels when it comes to GDP, as well as warning that the country faces a surge in corporate insolvencies as government support measures are phased out in the country.
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