
The appraisal company Euroval predicts a rise in property prices in Spain over the next three years. On average, it forecasts that the average price will rise by 6% between 2023 and 2025, to reach €1,809/m2 by the end of the period analysed, compared to the €1,706 at which it closed in 2022. Therefore, the square metre of housing will increase by an average of €103 per square metre.
According to the latest study published by the company, the annual increase will be around 2% this year, reaching 1.97% in 2024 and 1.90% in 2025. Moreover, the increases will be generalised, as prices are only expected to fall in three provinces, and will also be irregular, i.e. in double digits in some areas while much more moderate in others.
"The average housing price will continue to increase in value until 2025, albeit within a trend characterised by more moderate and stable rises than in the previous period. Spanish provinces will evolve inconsistently, within a trend characterised by relatively stable rises: Malaga will increase by 8.46%, Madrid by 5.28%, and Barcelona by 2.96%", the valuer highlights, adding that "the disparity in the behaviour of prices between provinces is considerable, as each of them responds to the specific dynamics of their respective markets".
Looking at the data, we can see that for a total of 28 provinces (including the two autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla), average prices in the 2023-2025 period will rise more than the national average (6%), while 24 will do so below; and, of these, three will show a negative balance in these three years.
The Euroval report points out another significant fact: the upward movements concerning the national average values for the projected period are much more pronounced than the respective downward ones, which would strengthen the already mentioned tendency towards provincial disparity. For example, the two provinces that open and close the report’s ranking, Guadalajara and Palencia, differ by 20.3 percentage points.
How much will house prices rise in each province?
Guadalajara is the province where the housing price would record the highest increase in Spain until 2025, 16.64%, according to the valuation company’s forecasts. However, average prices per square metre will not exceed those reached at the height of the real estate bubble, when they were €1,823 (in 2025, they would rise to €1,809).
The rest of the provinces that would record an evolution of their average residential price above the national average are Toledo (15.73%), Huelva (14.35%), Avila (13.58%), Segovia (13.16%), Zaragoza (11.4%), Cadiz (11.16%), Tarragona (10.9%), Valencia (10.51%), Burgos (10.2%) and Girona (10.12%).
Also with increases above the country average, albeit in single digits, were the Balearic Islands (9.49%), Granada (9.46%), Murcia (9.46%), Melilla (9.41%), Castellon (9.36%), Seville (9.33%), Malaga (8.46%), La Rioja (8.45%), Huesca (8.28%), Almeria (8.25%), Pontevedra (8.16%), Valladolid (7.72%), Alava (7.68%), Alicante (7.09%), Cantabria (7.01%) and Asturias (6.85%).
Meanwhile, 24 provinces would present a positive evolution of their prices until 2025, but below the national average. These are Lugo (5.98%), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (5.95%), Albacete (5.88%), Vizcaya (5.78%), Madrid (5.28%) and Lleida (5%).
Below this level are Cuenca (4.89%), Guipuzcoa (4.6%), Leon (4.38%), Ceuta (4.03%), Salamanca (3.51%), Badajoz (3.10%), Ciudad Real (2.98%), Barcelona (2.96%), Jaen (2.93%), Teruel (2.78%), Cordoba (1.89%), Las Palmas (1.57%), Orense (1.27%) and Caceres (0.99%).
The provinces of Zamora (-2.0.6%), Soria (-3.09%) and Palencia (-3.65%) are the only ones where house prices will fall over the next three years, according to Euroval's estimate.
The valuer's study stresses that "this projection is more likely to be correct the closer it is, meaning that the error would be higher from the end-2023 forecast. The forecasts may be altered by changes in the real estate market, such as an increase in the development of new builds over second-hand housing, as it is considerably more expensive, or greater demand for investment housing and as a hedge against inflation. Other factors, such as higher-than-expected interest rate hikes, the credit crunch and poor employment figures may also play a role.