New-build prices in Marbella, Benidorm, Málaga, and the Balearics now exceed pre-crisis levels

In a real estate market characterised by strong demand and stagnant sales due to limited supply, new home prices in locations such as Marbella, Benidorm, Málaga and the Balearic Islands have exceeded the levels recorded during the 2007 property bubble. According to data from the appraisal firm Tinsa, this trend can be attributed to the shortage of supply and the increasing demand for these popular tourist destinations and employment hubs.

Prices for new-build properties vary significantly depending on the location, ranging from €5,300 to €1,000 per m², with the majority falling between €1,700 and €2,900 per m². The highest prices are found in towns and cities with strong tourist appeal or significant employment centres. Annual variations in nominal terms range from +25% to -6%, with the majority falling between +10% and +2.5%. When adjusted for inflation (real variation), these fluctuations range from +22% to -10%, with the most common range being between +7% and 0%.

Since 2021, the price of new-build housing has increased by 7.6% in nominal terms, reaching €2,528 per m² by 2024. In comparison, the price of existing housing has risen by 4% over the same period, reaching €1,756 per m². In real terms, after adjusting for inflation, new housing has appreciated by 4.7%, while existing housing has increased by 1.2%.

The areas with the most significant growth compared to 2023 are located along the Cantabrian and Mediterranean coasts, as well as in municipalities within the metropolitan areas of Madrid and Barcelona. Since the lows of the 2008 financial crisis, the areas that have seen the most significant appreciation are primarily along the Mediterranean coast, including the islands, and in certain municipalities in Madrid and Barcelona. Notably, Málaga, Benidorm, Marbella and Orihuela have experienced a revaluation of over 50% since their lowest points.

In contrast, some locations remain at their lowest levels in the past two decades, such as Orense, Palencia, San Fernando de Henares and Linares. Excluding the impact of inflation, the highest prices seen during the 2007 property boom have been surpassed by less than 2.5% in Málaga, Benidorm and Marbella. Santa Cruz de Tenerife is in line with its previous highs, without exceeding them, while other municipalities such as Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Alicante, Palma de Mallorca, Pozuelo de Alarcón and Orihuela are approaching these levels, staying within 10% of their historical peaks.

Access to new housing now requires a significant financial effort, exceeding 35% of the average disposable income in most of the municipalities analysed. While this effort is lower in some inland areas and in the metropolitan areas of Madrid, Barcelona and Seville, it rises to over 70% in areas with high tourist demand, such as Benidorm, Marbella, Orihuela, Torrevieja, Barcelona, Cádiz and Málaga. These figures highlight the complexities of the current real estate market and the challenges many buyers face in accessing housing.