Spain is on track to become the world’s most visited country by 2040, overtaking France in international tourist arrivals. This is according to a long-term forecast by Deloitte and Google in the “NextGen travellers and destinations” study project.
Spain to lead global tourism by 2040
Europe remains the world’s leading tourism region, and Spain’s rise sits within that broader dominance.
The Deloitte–Google study uses historical travel data and long-term demographic and income trends to estimate how international tourism might evolve to 2040. Within this scenario:
- Spain is projected to receive around 110 million international arrivals in 2040
- France is expected to attract roughly 105 million arrivals
- Spain, France, the United States and China are all forecast to remain in the global top five destinations
Spain tourism statistics 2025: record arrivals and rising spending
Recent figures confirm that Spain is already operating at record levels, with the country estimated to have received around 97 million international tourists in 2025.
A key trend in recent years has been the way tourists are spending in Spain. Between 2019 and 2025, tourist spending increased by around 20.4%, and arrivals rose by about 10.9%
Why Spain is pulling ahead of France
Core markets driving Spain tourism
Spain’s tourism strength rests on long-standing relationships with several key source markets:
- The United Kingdom, which sends millions of visitors each year to the Balearic Islands, Canary Islands and mainland coasts
- Germany, a mainstay for island and coastal tourism, particularly in the Balearics and Canaries
- France, which generates a mix of cross-border road trips, city breaks and coastal holidays
The depth of these ties helps explain why Spain enjoys both high volumes and strong repeat visitation, a key factor in sustaining growth.
Why are tourists coming to Spain?
Several structural features give Spain an enduring advantage in attracting international tourists:
- Climate: Many Spanish regions enjoy more than 300 days of sunshine per year.
- Infrastructure: Spain has a dense network of international airports, high-speed rail lines, modern motorways and ports serving cruise traffic
- Price positioning: Despite recent inflation and rising hotel rates, Spain still tends to be perceived as offering better value than some neighbouring countries.
- Diversity of destinations: Visitors can combine beach holidays, culture, gastronomy and nature without leaving the country.
The “mass tourism” debate inside Spain
Local concerns in coastal and urban hotspots
Spain’s success as a destination has intensified domestic debates around turismo masivo (mass tourism).
Residents and local groups often highlight rising housing costs, partly linked to the growth of short-term holiday rentals in places like Barcelona, along with overcrowded historic centres in peak season.
They also point to pressure on local services and shifts in neighbourhood commerce, as everyday shops are replaced by businesses geared towards visitors.
These pressures have sparked protests in several destinations and pushed tourism policy to the forefront of local politics.
Outlook: what Spain’s rise means for global tourism
Spain’s potential move to the top of the global tourism ranking illustrates how international travel is changing. The forecast builds on decades of growth in global tourism, with international arrivals roughly doubling every 15 years since 1975, according to the Deloitte study.
By 2040, Spain’s main challenge is likely to be less about attracting visitors and more about managing them: how many tourists individual destinations can host comfortably, how benefits are shared across regions and communities, and how to adapt to climate pressures, particularly in southern and eastern areas.
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