UCI and Sira have just published the 22nd edition of the Real Estate Barometer – Market Sentiment of Real Estate Professionals – a report that brings together forecasts from industry experts regarding the outlook for the residential property market over the coming months. Among the key findings is a year-on-year increase of 4.61% in the number of property sales, potentially allowing the country to end 2025 with close to 750,000 transactions nationwide.
High prices in Catalonia and Barcelona, especially
In terms of prices, the 22nd edition of the Real Estate Barometer forecasts an average nationwide increase of 10% in property prices and 8.6% in rent.
However, growth is expected to vary significantly across regions. The strongest increases are projected in the Region of Murcia (15%) and the Valencian Community (12.4%), followed by Galicia, Andalusia and Catalonia, each with anticipated growth of around 10%.
Specifically, and in line with the national average, “real estate professionals expect property prices in Catalonia to rise by 10.06%, while rent is expected to increase by 4.57%,” according to SIRA Director Francis Fernández.
“These increases are primarily driven by robust demand fuelled by lower interest rates, new housing developments and growing demand from foreign buyers – both emigrants and expatriates – who are increasingly choosing Spain as a place to live. This is taking place in a context of limited supply, a shortage of developable land and the administrative challenges involved in promoting new residential construction,” Fernández explained.
He added that Barcelona continues to be a highly sought-after location, yet the increasing difficulty of developing land and constructing new buildings is creating a complex dynamic, with constrained supply and strong demand combining to further drive up prices.
Regarding rental prices in the region, Fernández noted that the increase is expected to be more moderate due to market regulation and rent caps in stressed areas, “as well as the reduced availability of rental properties, since many landlords have chosen to shift from traditional long-term rentals to holiday lets.”
Rental decline due to lack of supply
The Barometer offers further insights, including the projection that the rental market will see a 7.3% decline in the number of transactions, primarily due to the ongoing shortage of available housing.
Nevertheless, rental prices are expected to continue rising, with a projected nationwide increase of 8.61%. This figure underscores a property market where persistent demand continues to drive up prices – both for sales and lettings – against a backdrop of limited supply.
In Catalonia, rental transactions are forecast to fall by 9%, exceeding the national average. According to SIRA’s expert, this decline is once again attributed to factors such as the lack of available housing and the continued shift from long-term rentals to holiday lettings.
Affordable housing in stressed areas
The study also examines the sector’s main structural challenges for 2025. Chief among these is the shortage of housing supply – both for sale and rent – which remains the primary concern for estate agents. Other key issues include the need to enhance legal certainty for property owners and increase affordable housing availability in high-demand, or “stressed”, areas.
In relation to the latter – a particularly pressing issue in Catalonia – Francis Fernández emphasises the importance of sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors. He believes that addressing the shortage will require continued efforts to promote the development of both social and affordable housing in these areas.
Another key area is the need to incentivise the renovation of buildings, particularly those that are currently underutilised. In this regard, regulations requiring that 30% of renovated buildings be allocated to social housing have had an unintended consequence – deterring investment in the renovation of rental properties. This has led to a stagnating rental stock marked by ageing, energy-inefficient buildings that are poorly aligned with current market needs. As a result, renovation firms – which employ hundreds of workers – are also being negatively impacted by the downturn in renovation activity.
A further positive measure could be the introduction of tax incentives or financial aid for affordable housing projects. Such initiatives would help to rebalance the market and improve access to housing in high-demand areas.
Additional concerns highlighted by real estate professionals include the need to facilitate access to financing for first-time buyers, increase public support for housing renovations, expand the availability of social housing for sale, and boost the number of renovation projects to meet European sustainability commitments.