The Spanish real estate market is currently showing divided forecasts between those who are optimistic and those who are not after the COVID-19 health crisis. According to the forecasts of the luxury real estate company Barnes, the price of housing in the Catalan capital will fall between 20% and 30% in the coming months. Real estate experts from the company state that the premium market in Barcelona is increasingly affordable, with most of the demand, with absolute prominence for the national buyer in the absence of foreigners, looking for properties from 300,000 euros and up to one million.
Deals in September have been closed with negotiations down by 10%-15% at a time when the 'ceiling' of the market is at 7,000 euros per m2.
The average home in the high-end market in Spain is sought after as a main residence, with a surface area of around 150m2, three bedrooms, two bathrooms and outdoor areas. The upper area of Barcelona and Eixample continue to be the preferred location for buyers due to the quality of the housing stock, its tranquillity and its security. Although there is a preference for renovated or well-maintained homes, demand does not rule out the possibility of purchasing properties in need of renovation, provided that there are significant reductions in the sale price.
"Price reductions in the coming months are inevitable in a context like the one we are living in. In fact, the only way for Barcelona in particular, and Spain in general, to become attractive again for the purchase of residences is for prices to be adjusted downwards, adapting to the current reality of the market and the financial capacity of demand. First-time buyers will not buy above the market price, while investors are waiting for 'bargain' prices that are not yet happening," stresses Emmanuel Virgoulay, a partner at Barnes Barcelona.
As the expert points out, the imbalance between supply and demand and the drastic fall in national GDP made it impossible for the price of housing to be maintained once the market reactivated after the confinement. The recovery in transactions and house prices in Spain will therefore be linked to the evolution of the pandemic, which is not expected to be brought under control until the end of 2021.
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