Real estate has been one of the most stable values in the market during 2021, with an increase in transactions in these almost two years since the coronavirus crisis, and is offering figures that have not been seen since the real estate boom (2007-2008). Prices have remained practically stable, with increases below 5% year-on-year on average, avoiding the risk of a bubble that is being seen in international markets. Experts believe that housing will remain stable, but there will be variables other than real estate that will mark their steps in 2022, such as inflation, the evolution of the pandemic or the bottleneck in the distribution of raw materials in construction.
The housing market has not stopped adding positive data practically since the start of 2021. Both the data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the General Council of Notaries and the Association of Land Registrars speak of double-digit increases compared to 2020, something logical due to the paralysis of all economic activity during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, which led to the lockdown of homes for almost 100 days.
But the current data on home sales and purchases are not only improving on the pre-pandemic period of 2019, but are also showing figures similar to those recorded between 2007 and 2008, still in the midst of the housing bubble in Spain. The last update of 2021 from notaries already speak of more than 527,000 homes sold in 2021, above those transacted in annual terms between 2009 and 2016, and practically the same as in the whole of 2017.
The National Statistics Institute in Spain (INE), with data collected by the registrars, confirms that the greatest weight of transactions continues to be based on used housing transactions. Nearly 80% of all transactions closed this year are for second-hand homes, but new construction is the star of the biggest increases. New-build homes, which account for one in every five transactions, are up 39.3% year-on-year to October, compared with 35.1% for used property sales.
The main residential markets, with Madrid leading the way (17,840 transactions), followed by Barcelona (7,325), Malaga (7,179), Alicante (5,932) and Valencia (4,243), were the provinces where most new homes were bought.
In addition, according to data from idealista, one in three homes sold through the main real estate marketplace in southern Europe had not even been on the market for a month, according to a study published with data from October.
Market forecasts for 2022
The real estate sector forecasts for 2022 are positive and believe that home sales and purchases will remain above half a million transactions, provided that demand remains stable and they decide what to do with the savings that have been stored up during this time.
However, there are risks not associated with real estate that may harm the evolution of the market, especially the omicron variant of the coronavirus, and how it may affect the economy. In addition, the cost of living with the increase in inflation that we have been experiencing, especially in the last part of the 2021.
The third factor that may challenge market developments is how the slowdown and delays in the distribution of raw materials for housing construction could affect the construction sector.
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